The Hot Seat IndexEvery FBS head coach, ranked by job security
GridironCircus
Week 9 Edition138 programs · 4 jobs open
Week 9 · 2026 season

The Hot Seat Ten

The chance each head coach is fired by season's end, from a model fitted to every FBS firing since 2010.

  1. 1.Scotty Walden75%UTEP, 1-6, third year
  2. 2.Joe Moorhead75%Akron, 1-7, fifth year
  3. 3.Greg Schiano58%Rutgers, 2-5, seventh year
  4. 4.Brent Key55%Georgia Tech, 2-5, fifth year
  5. 5.Bryant Vincent47%UL Monroe, 1-6, third year
  6. 6.Mike Norvell44%Florida State, 3-4, seventh year
  7. 7.Deion Sanders42%Colorado, 2-5, fourth year
  8. 8.Brent Venables41%Oklahoma, 4-3, fifth year
  9. 9.Sean Lewis40%San Diego State, 3-5, third year
  10. 10.Ricky Rahne38%Old Dominion, 2-6, sixth year
All 138 head coaches

The Full Roster

Select any column heading to sort; select it again to reverse. Hover over or focus a heading for its definition.

Trend
UTEPScotty WaldenMW31-60-60.813413513513413195−0.55−2.14−1.59−0.7675
AkronJoe MoorheadMAC51-70-70.5135137137131133123−0.89−2.22−1.33−0.3875
RutgersGreg SchianoB1G72-51-52.09589905212236+0.18−0.80−0.99+0.0658
Georgia TechBrent KeyACC52-51-51.97581795111331+0.33−0.66−0.99−0.2655
UL MonroeBryant VincentSBC31-61-51.7133134133129126124−0.85−1.86−1.01−0.2747
Florida StateMike NorvellACC73-42-44.8533438146917+1.14+0.37−0.77−0.1244
ColoradoDeion SandersB1242-51-52.0937584943854+0.05−0.68−0.73−0.2042
OklahomaBrent VenablesSEC54-34-36.333232774414+1.38+0.73−0.65−0.3941
San Diego StateSean LewisPac-1233-52-53.41041031041258677+0.05−0.82−0.87−0.1640
Old DominionRicky RahneSBC62-61-62.512411812013763116−0.70−1.27−0.57+0.1438
Western KentuckyTyson HeltonCUSA83-52-53.611511711712295117−0.44−1.01−0.57+0.3338
ClemsonDabo SwinneyACC194-33-35.55551531011916+0.91+0.27−0.64+0.2037
Texas A&MMike ElkoSEC34-43-44.4342731522411+1.28+0.50−0.78+0.1335
Eastern MichiganChris CreightonMAC134-53-54.512312712512611384−0.58−1.08−0.50+0.0535
VanderbiltClark LeaSEC63-52-52.5776973677247+0.03−0.47−0.50−0.2534
Arkansas StateButch JonesSBC64-43-45.4971021018212676−0.12−0.54−0.42−0.1231
NavyBrian NewberryAAC42-51-53.58086847687137−0.10−0.49−0.39+0.1129
OregonDan LanningB1G54-33-36.31213135275+1.43+1.07−0.36+0.4127
TroyGerad ParkerSBC34-43-44.6108103109999879−0.16−0.74−0.58−0.3927
TCUSonny DykesB1253-42-44.0414543882027+0.61+0.23−0.39+0.1426
Middle TennesseeDerek MasonCUSA34-43-44.5125119122106119114−0.54−1.02−0.48−0.6523
SyracuseFran BrownACC33-42-43.3877781697850+0.08−0.48−0.55−0.2123
Hawai'iTimmy ChangMW52-62-64.1107113113102111121−0.66−0.88−0.22−0.1423
Arizona StateKenny DillinghamB1244-33-34.6626163764544+0.27−0.01−0.29+0.0122
RiceScott AbellAAC21-70-70.9122125123105124101−0.54−1.53−0.99−0.5222
USCLincoln RileyB1G56-26-27.718211827810+1.22+1.03−0.18+0.2121
Ball StateMike UremovichMAC23-52-53.1131132132107134112−0.61−1.54−0.93−0.6421
CharlotteTim AlbinAAC21-61-51.4136132134132119126−1.00−1.92−0.920.0020
Georgia SouthernClay HeltonSBC53-42-45.09496926010887−0.28−0.43−0.16−0.2820
San José StateKen NiumataloloMW34-43-44.611411911812978115−0.54−0.95−0.41+0.0220
MinnesotaP.J. FleckB1G105-24-25.1575759933338+0.27+0.14−0.13+0.3019
Bowling GreenEddie GeorgeMAC22-62-53.2130121128117106105−0.50−1.30−0.81−0.4618
Kent StateMark CarneyMAC23-52-53.3132131131128126113−0.70−1.49−0.79−0.4917
AlabamaKalen DeBoerSEC36-26-28.176711101+1.99+1.67−0.31+0.2617
Miami (OH)Chuck MartinMAC125-34-36.5921099910310388−0.31−0.33−0.02+0.0816
East CarolinaBlake HarrellAAC33-42-44.89194891135175−0.14−0.41−0.27+0.1416
BuffaloPete LemboMAC35-33-35.41181121151229290−0.39−0.66−0.27+0.1216
South CarolinaShane BeamerSEC64-33-35.6281823252918+0.78+0.76−0.03−0.1216
WashingtonJedd FischB1G34-33-35.0354338593321+0.66+0.40−0.26+0.0215
Central MichiganMatt DrinkallMAC23-52-54.1127123127118122102−0.47−1.16−0.68−0.2715
South AlabamaMajor ApplewhiteSBC34-33-34.9115971044613092−0.42−0.66−0.24+0.0315
Boston CollegeBill O'BrienACC34-33-34.2786770824368+0.05−0.21−0.26−0.2014
TexasSteve SarkisianSEC65-25-28.58983413+1.42+1.48+0.06−0.0414
WyomingJay SawvelMW35-34-35.698116107118102106−0.44−0.59−0.15−0.3213
New Mexico StateTony SanchezCUSA33-52-53.611912111912785128−0.99−1.10−0.11−0.3412
TempleK.C. KeelerAAC22-51-53.19910710282129107−0.44−0.90−0.46−0.0211
VirginiaTony ElliottACC54-43-45.1535654823773+0.07+0.19+0.12−0.2211
Georgia StateDell McGeeSBC34-33-35.1105951007310899−0.50−0.54−0.04−0.5311
Mississippi StateJeff LebbySEC34-34-35.6523437165725+0.53+0.49−0.04−0.4710
CincinnatiScott SatterfieldB1245-24-26.2494749317464+0.29+0.45+0.16+0.2810
KansasLance LeipoldB1263-42-43.6605156524865−0.20−0.04+0.16+0.4310
IllinoisBret BielemaB1G64-33-34.9473742198440+0.12+0.35+0.23+0.3110
Air ForceTroy CalhounMW205-24-26.973797733119132−0.20+0.05+0.25−0.0310
Utah StateBronco MendenhallPac-1222-52-43.3105839510346104−0.36−0.68−0.32+0.259
TennesseeJosh HeupelSEC66-25-27.71111103599+1.06+1.33+0.27+0.579
WisconsinLuke FickellB1G45-24-27.340182852637+0.65+0.93+0.28+0.149
PittsburghPat NarduzziACC125-34-36.6444545604146+0.34+0.56+0.22+0.029
North CarolinaBill BelichickACC24-33-35.0585557525324+0.51+0.13−0.38−0.589
West VirginiaRich RodriguezB1225-34-34.87057642510341+0.34−0.02−0.36+0.199
LouisianaMichael DesormeauxSBC55-34-37.4689181997286−0.26+0.08+0.34+0.138
Western MichiganLance TaylorMAC45-34-37.3868586868897−0.32+0.02+0.34−0.078
Kennesaw StateJerry MackCUSA22-61-62.8120126123122113135−1.07−1.27−0.20+0.308
MissouriEli DrinkwitzSEC75-24-26.7182320461222+0.63+0.98+0.35+0.278
NevadaJeff ChoateMW33-43-35.489979010778109−0.46−0.35+0.11−0.348
Florida InternationalWillie SimmonsCUSA23-42-44.91001071031335394−0.50−0.66−0.16−0.118
UABAlex MortensenAAC24-33-34.711010511110793118−0.60−0.74−0.15−0.318
MarshallTony GibsonSBC24-33-35.511110911412093122−0.52−0.67−0.15−0.118
App StateDowell LoggainsSBC25-24-27.3959995969585−0.05−0.17−0.13−0.347
Florida AtlanticZach KittleyAAC25-34-35.690109987113282−0.36−0.44−0.08−0.217
Louisiana TechSonny CumbieSBC55-24-27.4847076695798−0.32+0.14+0.46−0.227
Ohio StateRyan DayB1G86-16-110.3131474+1.69+2.15+0.46+0.446
PurdueBarry OdomB1G23-42-43.3695160329166−0.12−0.16−0.04+0.176
Texas StateG.J. KinnePac-1244-33-34.9657470398993−0.55−0.05+0.51+0.796
IowaKirk FerentzB1G285-24-27.0233125761432+0.41+0.90+0.49+0.536
GeorgiaKirby SmartSEC116-15-19.42223102+1.61+2.11+0.50+0.276
NebraskaMatt RhuleB1G45-24-27.0152016272426+0.55+1.08+0.53+0.106
DelawareRyan CartyCUSA24-43-44.7117114116113113133−0.93−0.83+0.10+0.195
LouisvilleJeff BrohmACC44-33-36.6253025223549+0.34+0.85+0.51+0.615
TulsaTre LambAAC24-43-45.4828083767096−0.35−0.20+0.15−0.135
ArmyJeff MonkenAAC135-24-27.166686528124138−0.41+0.23+0.64+0.235
UCFScott FrostB1224-33-36.0564852663158+0.22+0.36+0.14−0.284
Fresno StateMatt EntzPac-1224-34-36.5617869916680−0.17+0.11+0.28+0.194
DukeManny DiazACC35-24-26.4474950454755+0.07+0.47+0.40−0.024
MassachusettsJoe HarasymiakMAC24-42-44.5113130121136108130−1.31−0.96+0.34−0.344
Boise StateSpencer DanielsonPac-1246-15-18.429282977063+0.40+1.18+0.78+0.324
Northern IllinoisRob HarleywatchMW10-70-60.813613513612013791−0.27−2.17−1.90−0.983
UNLVDan MullenMW24-34-37.18287889864110−0.63−0.10+0.53+0.323
Texas TechJoey McGuireB1256-15-18.792815631523+0.53+1.34+0.81+0.513
Notre DameMarcus FreemanInd56-16-110.4313538+1.22+2.11+0.88+0.453
Sacramento StateAlonzo CarterwatchMAC11-70-70.6138138138138138131−0.88−2.60−1.72−0.893
NorthwesternDavid BraunB1G46-15-17.5202321222962+0.15+1.07+0.92+0.083
Jacksonville StateCharles KellyCUSA26-25-28.2841019390113127−0.66−0.01+0.65+0.402
UTSAJeff TraylorAAC77-16-18.9596562507689−0.42+0.58+1.00+0.632
MiamiMario CristobalACC57-06-010.15341167+1.16+2.12+0.96−0.232
BYUKalani SitakeB12116-15-18.7131212122145+0.35+1.41+1.05+0.392
LibertyJamey ChadwellCUSA46-15-19.74557516556103−0.28+0.86+1.14+0.602
SMURhett LashleeACC56-15-18.3213833293861−0.07+1.01+1.08+0.892
HoustonWillie FritzB1236-25-28.2222622105153+0.22+1.14+0.92+0.491
Washington StateKirby MoorePac-1211-70-70.81218710610761740.00−1.23−1.23−0.641
StanfordTavita PritchardACC14-43-43.51121001078811142+0.33−0.89−1.21−0.621
Wake ForestJake DickertACC26-16-18.7251419142252+0.08+1.25+1.17+0.431
Southern MissBlake AndersonSBC12-51-52.612612412611111883−0.36−1.34−0.98+0.301
ArizonaBrent BrennanB1236-15-18.2141514212757+0.09+1.27+1.18+0.051
Michigan StatePat FitzgeraldB1G12-62-62.9886072676639+0.35−0.43−0.79−0.011
Coastal CarolinaRyan BeardSBC12-51-52.8109105111112103100−0.30−1.00−0.71−0.031
ArkansasRyan SilverfieldSEC13-42-42.8716165526628+0.35−0.35−0.70+0.201
Missouri StateCasey WoodsCUSA13-52-52.812812912992135129−0.75−1.41−0.65−0.341
Colorado StateJim MoraPac-1213-42-43.31031141104413678−0.23−0.89−0.65−0.031
CaliforniaTosh LupoiACC13-52-53.110189978710069−0.06−0.75−0.68−0.351
MichiganKyle WhittinghamB1G14-34-36.6273232601313+1.16+0.72−0.45+0.420
TulaneWill HallAAC13-43-45.410183941155071−0.07−0.47−0.40−0.720
AuburnAlex GoleshSEC14-34-35.5513636422815+0.91+0.48−0.42+0.040
FloridaJon SumrallSEC15-24-26.5313234136412+1.05+0.76−0.30+0.670
Iowa StateJimmy RogersB1213-42-43.3764460464851+0.18−0.17−0.35−0.070
Penn StateMatt CampbellB1G13-43-46.6362229352419+0.91+0.74−0.16+0.480
IndianaCurt CignettiB1G37-16-19.667617556+0.01+1.91+1.90+1.750
New MexicoJason EckMW26-15-19.23649447135136−1.47+0.93+2.40+1.390
Kansas StateCollin KleinB1214-33-35.8394241375343+0.38+0.48+0.10+0.050
South FloridaBrian HartlineAAC15-24-27.4637168954370−0.06+0.26+0.32+0.170
Virginia TechJames FranklinACC16-25-27.0385446396135+0.34+0.60+0.26+0.330
MemphisCharles HuffAAC16-25-27.9466555417667+0.16+0.55+0.39+0.290
ToledoMike JacobsMAC16-25-28.3648274767881−0.08+0.31+0.40+0.200
OhioJohn HauserMAC16-25-27.87891869689108−0.31+0.09+0.40+0.210
LSULane KiffinSEC16-25-28.0355726+1.30+1.81+0.51+0.320
Ole MissPete GoldingSEC15-25-27.416101173120+0.73+1.24+0.51+0.260
UConnJason CandleInd14-33-35.867938074107120−0.79−0.13+0.66+0.330
Oklahoma StateEric MorrisB1215-24-27.3233935295759+0.26+0.83+0.57+0.410
Oregon StateJaMarcus ShephardPac-1215-24-26.5504147207872−0.07+0.62+0.69+0.360
KentuckyWill SteinSEC17-16-17.7311523242229+0.33+1.04+0.71+0.370
North TexasNeal BrownAAC16-25-27.772616517100111−0.51+0.32+0.82+0.180
James MadisonBilly NapierSBC17-26-28.62961486357125−0.34+0.79+1.13+0.270
UtahMorgan ScalleyB1217-06-09.5108961733+0.49+1.67+1.18+0.610
UCLABob ChesneyB1G17-07-010.5171717381760+0.11+1.42+1.31+1.190
North Dakota StateTim PolasekMW16-25-28.841725811542134−1.05+0.64+1.69+0.870
NC StateDave DoerenfiredACC143-42-44.3747375439934+0.35−0.26−0.61+0.19–
MarylandMike LocksleyfiredB1G82-51-52.3817577767530+0.27−0.59−0.85−0.62–
BaylorDave ArandafiredB1274-33-35.1434038463848+0.25+0.41+0.17−0.01–
Sam HoustonPhil LongofiredCUSA21-70-71.212912713013595119−0.42−1.63−1.21––

138 of 138 programs shown. Shaded ranks are the top or bottom 15 nationally. Fire % in red is 40 or higher.

How to Read This Table

Coach
Head coach this season. "Fired" marks an in-season firing; "watch" marks a first- or second-year coach having a disaster season.
Conf
Conference this season.
Yr
Season at this school. Only seasons with four or more games as head coach count, so a bowl game as interim does not.
Rec
Record this season, all games.
vs FBS
Record against FBS opponents only. Wins over FCS teams are left out.
Proj W
Projected FBS wins at season's end: wins so far plus the chance of winning each remaining FBS game, from current SP+ ratings.
SP+
National rank in SP+, Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. 1 is best.
FEI
National rank in FEI, Brian Fremeau's drive-by-drive efficiency rating, adjusted for opponents. 1 is best.
F+
National rank in F+, which combines FEI and SP+. 1 is best.
Off
National rank of the offense in FEI. 1 is best.
Def
National rank of the defense in FEI. 1 is best.
Talent
Roster talent rank: the average of the last four recruiting classes. 1 is the most talented roster.
Exp
What this job should produce. Expected team strength from roster talent and the program's 15-year history, in standard deviations from the FBS average (0 is average, +1 is about top 16%).
Act
Team strength this season, projected to season's end: a blend of SP+, FEI and record against FBS teams, on the same scale as Exp.
+/−
Value added: Act minus Exp. Above zero, the team is beating what the job should produce; below zero, it is falling short.
Career
Career value added across every season as an FBS head coach, discounted for short careers so one great year does not dominate.
Fire %
Chance this coach is fired by season's end, from a model fitted to every FBS firing since 2010. It weighs value added and tenure; coaches in their first two years get the most patience.
Trend
Value added by season at this school, up to the last six. The middle line is meeting expectations.